Baseball's Timing Perfect With TV Deal Looming

(From The USA Today -- By Michael Hiestand)

You want big numbers in your contract year. And MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL, which probably will get a new national broadcast TV deal in coming months, could be on the brink of cashing in.

It didn't seem that way just three years ago, when FOX got the lowest-rated WORLD SERIES ever -- despite a seven-game SERIES involving two teams, The Angels and Giants, in the USA's top-five TV markets.

Despite a four-game SERIES last year, FOX drew the highest SERIES ratings in a decade, and its LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES ratings rose sharply over the last two years, largely from the big-market New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox grudge matches.

While player story lines and playoff series' lengths can be big ratings factors, MLB heads into this weekend with a size advantage -- Teams in the USA's top-five TV markets are alive for the playoffs. Says NEAL PILSON, a consultant and Ex-President of CBS SPORTS, "This year's ratings could be as good, or better, than last season."

So much for the steroid controversy's effect on consumer demand. "With the in-your-face steroid scandals, I've said at some point the MLB brand would be diminished," sports business consultant DAVID CARTER says. "Now there's no reason to think they won't come out just fine."

Ratings aside, baseball's TV prospects would really brighten if another network wants to replace FOX, which pays MLB $417 million annually. It has an exclusive negotiating period through December to replace its six-year MLB deal, which expires after next season.

MLB recently got a 50% TV rights fee increase from ESPN, largely for regular-season games. But more than 80% of the value of FOX's national broadcast contract is tied to playoff games, which are on in prime time even as networks are hyping their fall prime-time lineups.

"There's no question baseball disrupts the launches of entertainment schedules," Pilson says. "And beyond ratings, the most important issue for baseball is whether there's a perceived competitor to FOX. But right now I don't see a strong competitor to FOX."